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Content for this site is produced by Gannett News Service's Baton Rouge, Louisiana, bureau, in partnership with Louisiana Gannett newspapers :
Tracking poll shows Jindal lead narrows
But Republican front-runner is still eight points ahead.
John Hill
Posted on November 1, 2003

Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco of Lafayette (left) seen here Oct. 28 in New Orleans and Republican Bobby Jindal of Baton Rouge, seen here Oct. 15 in New Orleans, are running against each other in the Nov. 15 gubernatorial runoff. (AP file photos)
laganbr@aol.com

BATON ROUGE - Republican gubernatorial candidate Bobby Jindal's lead over rival Democrat Kathleen Blanco narrowed to 8 points Friday, down from 11 points the day before in tracking polling.

"This race is getting closer," said Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight. "The race is definitely winnable by either Jindal or Blanco."

Jindal agrees. "We've said all along we're thrilled to be ahead. But we tell everybody, 'Please don't be complacent.' This is going to be a close race."

Blanco's happy with her apparent movement up in the Kennedy polling, now being conducted nightly. "Voters are responding to my positive message and to the negative attacks made against me."

Kennedy said his polling indicates Jindal's favorable ratings have been coming down while his unfavorable ratings are going up. Blanco's favorable ratings steadily dropped until midweek.

While most voters pay attention only to the responses to the voter choice preference, most political insiders look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings as important indicators of the trends in the race, Kennedy said. Jindal's favorable rating has gone from 58 percent to 51 percent to 50 percent over the previous three nights, he said.

"If the tracking continues as it has, the race will likely be narrowing to a 4-point spread this weekend." That would be a statistical tie.

Kennedy's first tracking poll of 600 through Wednesday night shows Jindal with 49 percent, Blanco with 38 percent and 13 percent undecided. Through Thursday night, that had changed to 48 percent for Jindal to 40 percent for Blanco.

"It appears that Blanco is improving, and it is probably due to new messages on television," Kennedy said.

For two weeks, Jindal has attacked Blanco for being negative and hints that she is surrounded by "the old political machine." Kennedy said the strategy caused erosion in her support and favorable ratings.

But Blanco went on television Wednesday night to answer those spots. "The truth is, I'm the one who's being attacked by Bobby's machine."

Both campaigns now are suggesting questions for Kennedy to include in his tracking polling, which is being done for subscribers who include contributors to both sides.

Kennedy is polling only those Louisianans known to have voted in the Oct. 4 primary, scientifically balancing the poll to reflect the state's electorate.

The tracking poll is a rolling sample of 600, with 200 new voters questioned every night added into the survey and the oldest 200 dropped out. That is standard tracking method that yields a margin of error of 4 points, which means if all voters were surveyed, there is a 95 percent probability their answers would not vary more than 4 points from those surveyed.

Kennedy, one of the nation's leading political pollsters, is tracking the election for a group of 25 wealthy business owners who include contributors to both Jindal and Blanco.

Landrieu warns people about consultant

U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, in a conference telephone call to Louisiana reporters Friday from her Washington, D.C., home, said voters should know that the same media consultant who ran Republican Susie Terrell's negative campaign against her re-election last year is working for Jindal.

The consultant is Alex Castellanos of National Media, who was behind Republican senatorial campaigns in the 2002 federal elections.

"He is notorious in below-the-belt attacks," Landrieu said. "For Jindal to say Kathleen Blanco is being negative after he has hired one of the most notoriously negative consultants is disingenuous."

The Jindal campaign continues to say it is Blanco, not Jindal, who is being negative. "I have resigned myself that these attacks will continue," Jindal said.

Business federation gets behind Jindal campaign

The National Federation of Independent Business, which claims 6,000 Louisiana small business as members, officially endorsed Jindal for governor Friday.

Charlie Hodson, the federation's state director, said the endorsement follows a survey of the group's members showing 83 percent of 500 respondents favor Jindal, the Republican candidate.

Jindal answered key questions on a questionnaire in a manner more consistent with federation views, Hodson said. "In the questionnaire, there were several things we find Mr. Jindal is closer to us. One of those is taxes."

Jindal said business taxes are too high; while Kathleen Blanco, the Democrat, said the level of taxes on business is "about right," Hodson said.

The federation will urge its members to get involved in the Jindal campaign.


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