(c) 2003 The Times

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BATON ROUGE - Republican Bobby Jindal, leading Democrat Kathleen Blanco by five points, is nearing a 50 percent majority with likely voters, according to a Times/Louisiana Gannett poll taken this week and released Friday.

Forty-eight percent favor Jindal and 43 percent Blanco. The rest are undecided.

The poll of 625 self-identified likely voters statewide was taken Tuesday through Thursday nights.

"It looks like it is his race to lose, but that doesn't mean he has it nailed down," pollster Brad Coker said. "From the time the poll was finished, there were nine days left - a long time in a hotly contested race."

Louisiana Gannett newspapers, including The Times, paid for the poll, which has a margin of error of 4 points.

Favorable opinions

Both Jindal and Blanco are household names: 98 percent of those polled recognize their names, and only 1 out of 4 have neutral opinions about them.

Jindal has a slight edge in favorable/unfavorable ratios with 53 percent of the respondents saying they have a favorable opinion of him compared to 47 percent for Kathleen Blanco.

Jindal's largest lead was in northern and central Louisiana, 51 percent to 37 percent for Blanco. He has an 11-point lead in his home base of Baton Rouge and in the Florida parishes (so called because they were part of the Florida colony, not the Louisiana Purchase).

The gap is narrower in the New Orleans metro area, where the point spread is 48 percent for Jindal to Blanco's 42 percent. Blanco has a 13-point lead in her Acadiana home base.

Traditional gaps

There are the traditional racial and gender gaps. Whites favor the Republican Jindal by a 2-to-1 margin over Blanco, a Democrat. Blacks favor Blanco by more than 8-to-1 - 83 percent for Blanco compared to 11 percent for Jindal. Among all men, Jindal has a 53 percent-39 percent advantage, while Blanco has 46 percent to 43 percent.

Jindal has a 40-point advantage among white men, 66 percent to 26 percent, but only a 24-point advantage, 56 percent to 32 percent, among white women. Among black males, Blanco has a 65-point advantage; but among black females, Blanco's advantage is 78 points.

The turnout

The turnout level among black voters remains very important to the outcome of the race, said Coker, whose firm, Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C., has polled in all 50 states. The gender gap has been around for 20 years in national politics, he said.

"It's natural whenever there is a Republican vs. a Democrat. Democrats have done more to attract women; and Republicans appeal more to men."

The endorsements

U.S. Sen. John Breaux's endorsement might be worth more to Blanco than Gov. Mike Foster's endorsement of Jindal because Breaux is so much more popular than Foster. Breaux is given a positive rating by 71 percent and a negative rating by only 26 percent of those holding an opinion, while Foster is rated negatively by 49 percent and positively by 48 percent.

While more than half the undecided voters in the gubernatorial race said an endorsement makes no difference to them, 23 percent said Breaux's endorsement would be more influential, compared to 9 percent who said Foster's support might make a difference.

No one is neutral on President George W. Bush, who has not campaigned in Louisiana, as he did to help successful Republican candidates in Mississippi and Kentucky. Sixty percent rate Bush positively, but 40 percent rate the president negatively.

"If Breaux campaigns hard for Blanco, he might be able to attract more of the undecided vote," Coker said. "Ultimately, Blanco has to campaign for herself, but Breaux is the best card the Democrats have in their deck."

The race factor

University of Louisiana at Monroe political scientist Pearson Cross said Blanco needs a greater percentage of white votes. "Right now, Kathleen Blanco is not at the magic number that will get a Democrat elected. She is at 29 percent but needs to be at 32 to 34 of the white vote and a very strong black turnout that votes for her."

"Louisiana is getting more and more like the rest of the country," Cross said. "I cannot detect in these poll numbers any effect of Jindal's ethnicity.

"But you can see there may be some anti-woman backlash among black males. Black males are significantly stronger in their support for Jindal than black females. Black males are starting to vote like white males."