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BATON ROUGE - Republican Bobby Jindal of Baton Rouge has an 11-point lead over Democrat Kathleen Blanco of Lafayette in the Louisiana gubernatorial runoff, according to an independent poll released Thursday.

Jindal has 49 percent compared to Blanco's 38 percent in the poll by Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight of Pensacola, Fla. It is the first independent survey outside the party camps showing Jindal with a clear lead that is outside the 4-point margin of error inherent in polling data.

Kennedy has been polling Louisiana since the late 1960s and has a reputation for extreme accuracy. He has polled for both Republicans and Democrats in 22 states. In Louisiana, he has been polling the gubernatorial race all year for a group of wealthy businessmen who include Jindal and Blanco contributors. He has discussed his data with both camps.

The poll of 600 people who voted in the Oct. 4 election likely reflects the fact that Jindal's heavy television campaign never stopped after his 33 percent showing in the primary, during which Blanco left the airwaves almost exclusively to him while she regrouped and raised money, analysts said.

Blanco being off the air "has been costly for her," Kennedy said.

Jindal is happy but cautious. "We are pleased with the growing support and momentum demonstrated by this poll. I've said all along I think this is a close election. I still think it's close."

Blanco went on the air with a heavy television campaign Monday. "We did not have a significant television buy during the several days he was running this negative ad against me. We are now up on television. And we see from the last night that the momentum is switching back."

Kennedy said Blanco's standing rose Monday through Wednesday in each night's running sample of 200 voters: 36 percent Monday, 38 percent Tuesday and 40 percent Wednesday. Jindal's numbers were 48 percent Monday, 53 percent Tuesday and 44 percent Wednesday. But the sample sizes are so small that the numbers are inconclusive.

"Jindal took advantage of three weeks of extensive television, while Blanco had essentially none," Kennedy said. "That moved Blanco's favorable numbers as well as her vote down. It increased Jindal's vote, but it did not increase Jindal's favorability."

Blanco's favorability rating - and her vote - consistently has dropped, from 66 percent Oct. 13 to 58 percent Oct. 22 and 47 percent this week. Jindal's favorable rating has remained flat: 54 percent Oct. 13, 54 percent Oct. 22 and 55 percent today, Kennedy said.

"Although Jindal has the advantage, the election is winnable by either Jindal or Blanco," Kennedy said.

The poll shows Jindal's efforts to win black votes could be paying off. Among blacks, 70 percent are for Blanco and 14 percent are for Jindal. Whites split 61 percent for Jindal to 27 percent for Blanco.

University of Louisiana political scientist Pearson Cross also said the poll shows the advantage Jindal had knowing he would be in the runoff two to three weeks prior to the Oct. 4 primary, while Blanco did not know until election results were in.

"Blanco has been under sight. This is the difference between a candidate who knew he was going to be in the runoff and a candidate who hoped she would be in the runoff."

The Republican Governors Association began a massive advertising campaign on Jindal's behalf immediately after the Oct. 4 primary. Jindal has been up with his own ads for more than two weeks with a massive television campaign, including one repeatedly charging that Blanco has been negative.

Blanco had a brief, small buy, but was off in most markets until her major television campaign began Monday night.

Pollster Kennedy was back polling Thursday night in what is called "tracking polling." He will question 200 voters every night through Nov. 14 to track trends. Each morning, the new sample of 200 will be added and the oldest 200 dropped to get a rolling sample of 600 that shows trend lines.